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Prediction for CME (2023-12-16T01:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-16T01:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28221/-1
CME Note: Weak signatures detected in solar wind at L1 indicate possible arrival. | Very faint CME seen in the south of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 due to the faintness. The leading edge is primarily seen towards the S/SW, and is best seen in SOHO LASCO C2. The potential source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-12-15T20:48Z in SDO AIA 304 that is also visible as dimming in SDO AIA and brightening loops in SDO AIA 94 around 2023-12-15T21:05Z. This eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195/304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-20T00:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-20T03:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-16T09:07Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 341
Longitude (deg): 000W
Latitude (deg): 18S
Half-angular width (deg): 20

Notes: Possible false attribution in coronagraphs to south-central disappearing filament seen in H-Alpha around 15/2100Z (e.g. Cerro Tololo). May instead have been reabsorbed. This ejecta is very faint western edge of CME in Lasco C2, and even fainter emission on STEREO COR2. If attribution correct, felt likely to have Earth-directed component, although probably muted effects given slow transit time.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 71.05 hour(s)
Difference: -2.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-12-17T01:23Z

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